Britain’s Potential Arms Export to Kosovo, Strategic Support or Regional Gamble?

The United Kingdom’s recent consideration of arms sales to Kosovo represents the crystallisation of a new type of British foreign policy and a new era in Britain’s approach to the Balkans. It is likely that the changing complexity of the Western Balkans and the position of the UK in European defence will be key pillars of this evolution.

Reportedly, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is looking at weapons exports as part of a broader strategy to boost the capability of Kosovo’s security forces and grow the UK local defence industry. This move, however, raises a plethora of questions around regional stability in the present context and the UK’s geopolitical objectives in the region. In addition, it risks aggravating Kosovo’s already tense relations with Serbia.

Existing developments include Maria Eagle, Secretary of State for Defence, declaring in a Written Question that “the UK continues to monitor the security situation in Kosovo closely… HMG are also currently exploring export opportunities to Kosovo… alongside bolstering Kosovo’s security and resilience.”

Strategic and geopolitical considerations

In this context, the UK’s proposed arms sale to Kosovo can be seen as a measure to strengthen Kosovo’s defence capability, notably its nascent Kosovo Security Force (KSF). The KSF is evolving into a regular army, a development viewed by Serbia as provocative, while Kosovo’s security apparatus remains highly dependent on NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) for deterrence and stability. Building Kosovo’s domestic capabilities might ultimately reinforce a gradual transition away from reliance on international peacekeepers, consistent with NATO’s long-term aim of encouraging regional actors to take on more self-sustaining responsibility for their own security.

However, the sales and delivery of modern weaponry are rather rare. The KSF’s status and KFOR’s role in maintaining stability restrict Kosovo’s military expansion. Given present circumstances, large systems like the AS-90 howitzer or Sky Sabre air defence are unlikely. Even defensive equipment, such as NLAW missiles and UAVs, would be inspected. In a worst-case scenario, Kosovo would require weaponry similar to that given to Ukraine, far beyond its present capability. That said, while unlikely, such a move is not unprecedented, as seen in the US’ decision to supply Javelins to Kosovo.

This is in the UK’s larger interest in European stability, even after Brexit. The UK continues to contribute a company-sized contingent to KFOR and has consistently supported Kosovo’s sovereignty. With new support for Kosovo’s defensive capabilities, Britain is signalling that its commitment to Balkan security remains strong, even after its withdrawal from the European Union in 2016. It also establishes the UK as an engaged player in the Western Balkans where Russian influence and hybrid warfare methods including disinformation, and cultivating nationalist forces have increasingly endangered stability.

The UK’s defence relationship with Kosovo has certainly not been without controversy. Serbian and pro-Russia media have at times accused the U.K. and other Western nations of secretly arming Kosovo or helping to build up its military. Such claims are most often part of a pervasive narrative casting Western support for Kosovo as a threat to Serbian sovereignty. Many such accusations are not backed by evidence, but they add to the already heated political atmosphere in the region.

There was an example when such participation was denied in 2022 when several Serbian media claimed that the UK was providing arms supply to Kosovo. The British Embassy in Serbia called these claims “bogus,” stressing that “certain Belgrade media outlets have published a total fabrication.” (Euractiv, 2022). However, this episode also demonstrated very strongly the importance of misinformation in the geopolitics of the Balkans and the need for the UK to be aware of these narratives when pursuing any future defence cooperation with the new Kosovo government.

Economic, legal, and ethical implications

The strategic justification is clear, but there are also economic reasons behind the UK’s interest in the export of arms to Kosovo. Defence exports are an important part of Britain’s industrial policy, underpinning domestic manufacture and protecting jobs.

British defence companies, which are competing in increasingly crowded international markets, could also gain from the access offered by smaller, but geopolitically important partners such as Kosovo. These deals might not have the heft of contracts with Gulf states or NATO allies, but they provide a way to nurture long-term ties in an emerging security market. Kosovo will also seek light arms, tactical vehicles, and possibly counter-drone systems as its military continues its modernisation, fast-growing sectors in which UK manufacturers are well placed.

However, potential financial gain must be balanced with reputational risk. Britain has had a controversial record on arms sales, including to Saudi Arabia during its conflict in Yemen. The government has long been accused by critics of prioritising economic benefit over human rights issues. Kosovo is not an authoritarian country, but the Balkan region’s complicated ethnic tensions and historical grievances provide a tinderbox atmosphere. Any abuse of British weaponry, however inadvertent, could threaten the UK’s image as a responsible arms exporter.

British arms exports are regulated by the Strategic Export Licensing Criteria, which demands that each case be subject to rigorous assessments to ensure that the weapons in question are not used in ways that violate human rights or broker conflict. Government officials have said that no licences would be issued if there is a clear risk that the exports would undermine peace and security. This is meant to stave off criticism, but in practice it is more difficult. 

Kosovo’s security forces have generally secured international trust, but heavy-handed policing in the predominantly Serb municipalities in the north has raised concerns. Any escalation involving British-supplied arms would face not just Serbian backlash, but also scrutiny from within the UK and the EU. Due to Serbia’s increasingly close relations with Russia and growing military cooperation with China, there is also a risk that Belgrade could escalate its response by further militarising and triggering an arms race along the Kosovo-Serbia border.

Any British-Kosovan defence arrangement will most likely elicit a swift, severe reaction from Serbia. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, has consistently characterised Kosovo’s military development as a threat to Serbia’s security and national interests. Nationalist rhetoric is a common theme in Serbian state media, which has painted Western military support for Kosovo as part of a concerted effort to destabilise Serbia.

The UK’s consideration to contemplate arms exports may also embolden hardliners in Serbia and risk undermining ongoing dialogue facilitated by the EU to normalise relations between Belgrade and Pristina. That could also create more grounds for justifying Serbia’s increased military collaboration with Russia, hindering the West’s attempts to decrease Russian influence in the Balkans. This sensitive geopolitical balancing act highlights the precariousness of any UK-Kosovo-administered relationship.

UK arms exports to Kosovo present both an opportunity and a risk. Strengthening Kosovo’s defence capabilities aligns with Britain’s broader goal of promoting stability in Europe while also benefiting the UK’s domestic defense industry. But the move could spark a regional backlash, heighten tensions with Serbia, and subject the UK to reputational review. Navigating this complex situation will require careful diplomacy, strong safeguards, and a clear understanding of the UK’s strategic and economic interests in the Western Balkans.

Denora Gashi holds a degree in Politics and International Relations and has experience in defence and geopolitical analysis, including in the aerospace and defence sector. She writes about strategy and security dynamics, with a focus on the Balkans.

The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.